The November 2025 Employment Research Brief points to a labor market that is stabilizing on the surface but still uneven beneath the headline numbers. Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, breaking a two-month streak of losses. Gains were narrowly concentrated in trade, transportation, and utilities, supported by improving supply chains and revived West Coast port activity. Most other sectors saw flat or negative hiring, reinforcing a slower, more fragile labor backdrop.

Seasonal hiring trends highlight that worker strain is growing. Interest in seasonal jobs is up 27% year-over-year, but available postings rose just 2.7%. The share of involuntary part-time workers has climbed sharply to 38%, suggesting that many households dependent on seasonal income may face tighter budgets this winter.

Layoffs also spiked to the highest monthly total since 2003. Major employers—from Amazon to General Motors—announced cuts, yet overall layoffs remain well below recessionary levels. Notably, large firms still added more than 70,000 jobs, while smaller businesses absorbed the bulk of the losses.

A key shift: white-collar job losses are accelerating. Information and professional services have now shed jobs for three straight months. Because higher-income households have been propping up consumer spending, any pullback here could influence discretionary sectors and moderate absorption/lease-up timelines in multifamily.

Meanwhile, progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations—and China’s rollback of tariffs from 24% to 10%—is stabilizing West Coast freight flows. Improved clarity on trade policy is supporting industrial demand and helping lift hiring in trade and logistics.

Why This Matters for CRE

• Multifamily: Softer white-collar hiring may lengthen lease-up velocity in higher-end product, but blue-collar and logistics-driven hiring continues to support workforce housing demand.

• Industrial: Easing trade tensions and port volume recovery are boosting fundamentals along the West Coast.

• Retail: Seasonal income pressure among lower-wage workers could dampen Q4 discretionary spending.

• Capital Markets: Uneven job gains reinforce the likelihood that the Fed maintains its rate-cut trajectory, supporting a more liquid financing environment heading into 2026.